Brexit triggered volatility in markets, including a sharp depreciation of the British pound and dramatic falls in the share prices of British and European banks. However, we believe the probability of a major global systemic risk event due to Brexit is low in the short term. 

After a prolonged period of market volatility, the news from emerging markets has taken on a more positive tone since the start of 2016. 

A credit-fuelled property bubble enabled China to maintain its incredible run of growth through the global financial crisis (GFC). However, now China has to deal with a massive excess supply of property that is causing construction activity to contract along with a range of other linked sectors in the Chinese economy, as millions of homes lie vacant.

While the US ceased quantitative easing (QE) in October 2014, Europe commenced QE and in Japan it continues. China is seeking to stabilise growth, as seen in the recent cut in interest rates, while on 3 February 2015, Australian cash rates were lowered from 2.5 per cent to a record low of 2.25 per cent.

The current investment environment is extraordinary. Many world share indices ended June at or near all-time record highs.

Despite the revival in world equity markets over the past six months, its renewed optimism is still very fragile.